MET Office Warns of Altered Rainfall Patterns as El Niño Takes Hold in Maldives

The Maldives Meteorological Service has confirmed it is closely monitoring the effects of El Niño on the island nation following the World Meteorological Organization's official announcement of the climate phenomenon's onset from June.

In a statement released this week, the MET Office detailed that El Niño is currently forming in the Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rising above normal levels. The agency warned that the weather event, which typically lasts between nine and twelve months but can persist for years, could bring significant changes to rainfall patterns across the archipelago.

The Maldives Meteorological Service is closely monitoring these changes, the statement said, emphasising that the impacts may vary considerably depending on the intensity and timing of El Niño conditions. 

The weather effects may not be the same in each El Niño year, and it is possible that the intensity of the El Niño and the timing of its occurrence will likely have different effects on rainfall in different parts of the country.

The statement included a chart illustrating variations in normal rainfall during years of moderate and intense El Niño, showing that some months could experience above-average precipitation while others may see significantly drier conditions. However, the MET Office noted that El Niño is not the sole influence on Maldives weather, explaining that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) also play crucial roles in determining local rainfall patterns.

The WMO has forecast higher than normal temperatures for much of the world from June to August, with effects already being felt across European countries. The agency had earlier projected that monsoon rains would be less than usual in South Asian countries, including the Maldives, with the MET Office forecasting below-average rainfall for June compared to previous years.

The announcement comes amid escalating global temperatures, with 2024 recorded as the hottest year in history at 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial revolution average, following 2023 as the second warmest year on record.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon caused by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These elevated temperatures trigger dramatic changes in the Earth's atmosphere, affecting pressure systems and rainfall patterns worldwide. The condition typically persists for nine to twelve months, though extended episodes lasting several years have been recorded. The event occurs irregularly every two to seven years, making each occurrence unique in its timing and intensity.

Experts warn that as global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of El Niño events may increase, potentially reshaping weather patterns across the Indian Ocean region for years to come.